Consumption Yet to Be Realized, SHFE Aluminum Fluctuated and Adjusted Today [SMM Aluminum Futures Brief Review]

》Check SMM Aluminum Product Prices, Data, and Market Analysis

SMM, February 26:

Today, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2504 contract opened at 20,550 yuan/mt, with a high of 20,680 yuan/mt and a low of 20,540 yuan/mt, closing at 20,615 yuan/mt, up 0.34%. Trading volume was 145,000 lots, and open interest was 204,000 lots.

SMM Comments: On the macro side, US President Trump introduced the latest measures that could reshape the global supply chain, instructing the US Department of Commerce to study imposing tariffs on imported copper. Fundamentals side, cost side support continued to weaken; supply side saw slight increases, with overall changes relatively small; demand side, influenced by rising aluminum prices, end-users adopted a wait-and-see approach, and shipments from downstream aluminum semis enterprises showed no significant improvement. Factory raw material inventory turnover days struggled to rebound, focusing on just-in-need restocking and consuming finished product inventories. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum billet social inventories climbed to 1.194 million mt, surpassing the key thresholds of 1 million mt and 1.1 million mt, and are now approaching the 1.2 million mt mark. Currently, most suppliers are optimistic about aluminum's future market, and it is expected that after entering March, the inventory turning point will gradually emerge. With policy support, aluminum ingot inventories may remain low for an extended period, and sentiment of holding back cargoes in the spot market has intensified. Macro sentiment remains unstable, and consumption realization still requires observation, with the market cautiously adjusting aluminum prices amid fluctuations.

Today, the most-traded alumina 2505 contract opened at 3,405 yuan/mt, with a high of 3,428 yuan/mt and a low of 3,336 yuan/mt, closing at 3,344 yuan/mt, down 1.53%. Trading volume was 168,000 lots, and open interest was 174,000 lots.

SMM Comments: Recently, reports of minor alumina production cuts and maintenance in northern regions have emerged, coupled with concentrated news of domestic alumina exports, boosting alumina prices and improving market sentiment. This week, spot alumina prices rebounded slightly. However, with the slight rebound in domestic spot alumina prices and the decline in overseas spot alumina prices, the domestic alumina export window has gradually closed. Currently, alumina operating capacity remains at a high level, while incremental demand for aluminum is limited. The fundamental structure has not been completely reversed, and resistance at the top of alumina prices persists. In the short term, alumina prices may enter a phase of fluctuation and adjustment. Moving forward, attention should be paid to the alumina export window and changes in alumina operating capacity.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make cautious decisions and not substitute this for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]